Analysts doubt Iran will launch ballistic missiles at Europe anytime soon

Iran’s foreign minister warned European nations against hosting U.S. assets, and a journalist suggested a missile hit on Britain was conceivable after Iran labeled U.S. bases there as legitimate targets. Yet analysts stress that firing a ballistic missile at a NATO member would be a drastic step, likely provoking collective defense obligations. Iran’s past attempts, such as the failed Diego Garcia launch, used lighter warheads for range but achieved little strategic effect.

Experts also point out the logistical challenges of reaching distant cities like London and the layered missile defenses Europe is deploying, including German Arrow-3 systems. Consequently, Iran is expected to rely on indirect measures—cyber attacks or proxy actions—rather than direct kinetic strikes on European soil.