Analysts Warn of Potential Surge in Chinese Military Moves Near Taiwan

Heritage Foundation analysts note that, despite a marked reduction in People's Liberation Army (PLA) flights and ship movements this year, the downturn is unlikely to endure. Their review highlights that median-line incursions surged after visits by U.S. officials like Alex Azar, Keith Krach and Nancy Pelosi, and after major arms-sale announcements. Recent dips have been attributed to senior-military purges, concerns over a U.S.-Iran clash, and Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-Wun’s Beijing visit.

The scholars warn that forthcoming dates—such as PLA Day, PRC Founding Day and Taiwan’s National Day—historically prompt heightened sorties, and that a pending $14 billion U.S. weapons package could further provoke Chinese drills. They also anticipate more aggressive Chinese Coast Guard patrols following a July 5 statement authorizing law-enforcement missions east of Taiwan.