Authors rebut mischaracterizations of their 2023 Lancet Covid-19 policy study

Thomas J. Bollyky and Joseph Dieleman issued a detailed rebuttal after Marc Lipsitch and Sara Cody published an op-ed suggesting their 2023 Lancet Covid-19 study was a misrepresented straw-man. The authors clarify that their analysis incorporated ten distinct policy mandates and measured associated behaviors such as mobility, mask-wearing and vaccination, finding these correlated with fewer infections. They also point out that the study explicitly addressed the influence of partisanship and social trust on compliance, contrary to the critics’ assertions.

Although Lipsitch and Cody have revised parts of their piece, they still omit discussion of trust and continue to misstate the study’s conclusion about deaths, which the authors attribute to noisy data and overlapping health factors. Bollyky and Dieleman emphasize that while the statistical link to mortality was not detected, the evidence still supports the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions in curbing spread. The response underscores the need for accurate representation of pandemic research to inform future public-health strategies.