Back-to-school costs surge as Trump-era policies raise prices for families

A joint analysis from Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation reports that parents will face a noticeable premium on school supplies and meals for the 2026 academic year, with overall basket costs up almost 8% and lunch items up 11% from the previous year. Lunch boxes show the sharpest increase, projected to cost roughly 27% more, while one-subject notebooks, index cards and notebook paper have risen between 20% and 23%.

The study attributes much of the inflation to higher diesel prices tied to the United States’ ongoing war with Iran and to tariffs that have burdened companies such as Newell Brands, which produces Sharpies and other staples. Additionally, changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the 2025 Republican budget are expected to tighten eligibility for food assistance, further squeezing families. Groundwork Collaborative president Lindsay Owens warned that these policies force parents to question whether they can afford essential school items, while Century Foundation senior fellow Janelle Jones cautioned that rising costs could hurt student performance and long-term outcomes.