Beyond Strongmen: How Instability, Technology and Non-State Actors Shape Global Politics

For a decade, global headlines have focused on strongmen like Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but their sway is waning as their pronouncements fail to move markets or diplomatic circles. The piece contends that a confluence of factors—decades of great-power meddling, the emergence of perpetually unstable states, and the ascent of non-state actors—now drives world events in unsettling ways.

Recent weeks have seen the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts spill into neighboring regions, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and even Egypt becoming entangled, while Ukraine’s strike on an Iranian vessel linked Tehran to the Russian war. Simultaneously, reports of Chinese arms sales to Iran, a Russian missile entering Polish airspace, and North Korean troop movements toward Russia underscore the volatility. Technological advances in warfare and shrinking defensive arsenals are reshaping power dynamics, as illustrated by a controversial US-Saudi nuclear deal lacking robust safeguards. Finally, scholars Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr describe Iran’s new leadership as pragmatic nationalists pursuing a coherent regional strategy, challenging the simplistic view of a collapsing revolutionary regime.