China faces looming waste crisis as first wave of EV batteries reaches end of life

China’s electric-vehicle market has exploded, with annual sales climbing from about one million in 2018 to more than 16 million in 2025, ushering in the country’s first major wave of battery retirements. While certified recyclers now boast a combined capacity of 623,000 metric tons, they processed only about 25 percent of the waste last year, leaving the majority to informal operators that lack proper testing and pollution controls.

A 2024 incident in Jiangxi Province, where an uncertified firm mishandled 364 metric tons of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, resulted in forest die-off and timber loss. Researchers estimate that informal channels handled roughly 270,000 metric tons in 2023 and could reach over 1 million tons by 2030 without stricter measures. New national rules effective April 1 require automakers to route used batteries through approved recyclers, but scholars argue that consumer awareness and stricter enforcement are essential. Parallel challenges are evident abroad, with several North American recyclers filing for bankruptcy, underscoring the global difficulty of building profitable battery-recycling businesses.