China's Coal Share Drops Below Half as Solar Set to Overtake by Q3

Government figures indicate that coal accounted for 49.7% of China’s electricity generation in the first half of the year, marking the first time the share fell below 50% in recent memory. The China Electricity Council projects that, should current renewable-capacity expansion continue toward an estimated 4,300 GW by year-end, solar power could overtake coal as the top electricity source in the third quarter. Despite the surge in solar and wind installations, total coal consumption is expected to keep rising in the near term because electricity demand is soaring, driven by new AI data centers and widespread electric-vehicle adoption.

China has pledged that coal use will peak no later than 2030 and then decline. Greenpeace East Asia’s project lead Gao Yuhe argues that stronger renewable targets—raising the 2030 wind and solar goal from 30% to 33% by 2028—are needed to accelerate coal’s displacement. The development highlights China’s paradox of being both the world’s biggest carbon emitter and a leading exporter of clean-energy technology.