Climate shift could push malaria into cooler African regions by 2100

A recent Nature paper predicts that climate change will shift malaria transmission into cooler areas of southern and eastern Africa, potentially increasing overall case numbers by as much as 20% in coastal southern regions. By 2050, the mosquito range is expected to move into the East African highlands—including parts of Kenya and Ethiopia—as well as Angola, Zambia and eastern South Africa, raising incidence by about 5%.

In contrast, the hottest parts of the continent, such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali, may experience a 5% decline as temperatures exceed mosquito survival limits, possibly eliminating the disease in sections of the Sahel. Christopher Trisos of the Climate Risk Lab at the University of Cape Town highlighted the heightened vulnerability of children in South Africa’s north-eastern provinces. Romaric Odoulami of the African Climate and Development Initiative noted that the impact on childhood malaria will vary across the continent, complicating adaptation planning. The study also finds that keeping global warming below 2 °C could prevent several additional cases per 1,000 children, underscoring the need for intensified malaria monitoring and control in newly at-risk areas.