Debate Over Lancet Study Links USAID Cuts to Millions of Deaths Escalates

Rep. Ro Khanna claimed Elon Musk’s push to dismantle USAID could cost millions of lives, citing a controversial Lancet study that many experts say overstates the agency’s impact.

California Democrat Ro Khanna accused Elon Musk of effectively sentencing millions of children to death by advocating the shutdown of USAID, basing his claim on a 2025 Lancet study that reported the agency prevented 91,839,663 deaths from 2001-2021. The study’s methodology, which linked rising USAID funding to global mortality declines, has been widely criticized for conflating correlation with causation and for producing numbers that exceed the total reduction in worldwide deaths.

Subsequent research from the same journal, using a broader aid dataset, projected fewer deaths and highlighted inconsistencies in the original agency-specific estimate. No correction or retraction has been issued, and the inflated figure continues to be quoted by politicians and media outlets. Alternative calculations by the Center for Global Development and Boston University estimate between half a million and one million lives lost in 2025, far below the Lancet’s claim. The controversy underscores the need for rigorous, transparent analysis when assessing the humanitarian impact of foreign-aid policy.