Deportation-driven labor squeeze threatens U.S. jobs and care sector

Recent deportation actions have not only reduced the size of the U.S. labor pool but also appear to be erasing jobs that immigrants previously filled. In July, health-care hiring fell to 22,000, far below its recent average, while social-assistance roles also slowed, reflecting their reliance on immigrant labor. Swonk points out that immigrants now constitute 28% of direct-care workers, a figure that has risen since 2011, and the sector will need close to a million new hires in the coming decade.

The termination of temporary protected status for roughly 200,000 individuals and the upcoming loss of work permits for 400,000 Venezuelan workers threaten to exacerbate the shortfall just as state Medicaid cuts tighten funding for long-term care. Bill Adams of Fifth Third Bank echoes the concern, describing the falling unemployment rate as misleading because it masks a shrinking labor force. Research by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox shows that spikes in ICE arrests have led to job losses among undocumented workers without corresponding gains for native-born workers, especially in construction. Overall, the findings suggest that immigrant and native workers complement each other, and the current deportation trend could destabilize regional economies.