Dollar chart mirrors Trump era, hinting at renewed strength amid AI boom

Since January 2025, LPL Financial’s chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist has been overlaying the U.S. Dollar Index on the timeline of Donald Trump’s two administrations, noting an uncanny replication of the 2016-2018 trajectory. The index fell 13% over 269 trading days from its early-2025 high and has now breached the 100-point resistance that preceded the 2018 surge, hinting at a potential new climb. Turnquist argues that, despite vastly different monetary backdrops, the pattern reflects a structural bet on American growth—particularly the AI and semiconductor sectors—rather than direct policy influence.

He contrasts this with the Biden term, where the dollar’s gains were largely a function of aggressive Fed tightening to combat inflation. While some investors are diversifying, Turnquist sees no imminent challenge to the dollar’s dominance as a global reserve currency, noting that alternatives lack the necessary market depth. The analysis underscores how the dollar continues to act as a barometer of relative economic strength amid a politically divided but still spending U.S. economy.