El Niño drives forecast for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season

In early August, Houston encountered two named cyclones, Arthur and Bertha, each a moderate tropical storm that passed close to the city. The season’s accumulated cyclone energy is currently less than 30 % of the historical average for this point in the year, well below the three to four storms and at least one hurricane normally recorded by now. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, the chief seasonal hurricane predictor, has steadily lowered his forecast, moving from an April projection of 13 named storms and six hurricanes to a final estimate of nine named storms and four hurricanes, with ACE around 40 % of normal.

He attributes this downgrade to a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, which increases wind shear across the Atlantic basin. The revised outlook suggests a relatively quiet remainder of the season for coastal regions from South Texas to Florida and Maine. Nevertheless, residents remain vigilant, as the bulk of the season’s activity still lies ahead.