Europe’s Middle-Power Role Tested by Iran Conflict and Global Shifts

The ongoing war with Iran has acted as a reality check for Europe’s middle powers, revealing that they cannot single-handedly reverse great-power aggression but can still influence the security narrative through coordinated effort. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call for a united middle-power front at Davos contrasts with Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby’s dismissal of such a strategy as a distraction.

The conflict has highlighted the vulnerability of Gulf Cooperation Council members, whose reliance on U.S. security guarantees has both exposed them to Iranian attacks and deepened their dependence on American support. Consequently, these states are likely to broaden defence ties with other middle powers, including Turkey, France, Italy, Ukraine and South Korea. The episode also points to a broader diplomatic vacuum, as European actors have been largely absent from mediation efforts in Iran, Gaza and Ukraine, a role now being filled by non-Western nations like Pakistan and Qatar. To remain relevant, European middle powers must adopt a new “state psychology” that embraces cross-regional cooperation on issues such as climate, health and arms control, redefining global norms together with partners from the global south.