Geography, Not Gangs, Drives Homicide Patterns Across Colombian Municipalities

An analysis of ten years of homicide statistics across Colombian municipalities reveals that the physical environment and geography are stronger indicators of murder rates than the density of guerrilla or criminal organizations. The study evaluated factors like coca farming, gold extraction and proximity to major roads, rivers, ports, airports and border crossings, using statistical models to weigh their predictive power against the presence of groups such as the former FARC, its dissidents, the ELN and various cartels.

Results indicated that environmental variables significantly correlated with local homicide levels, even where armed actors were absent, while many eastern municipalities with substantial armed-group presence experienced relatively few killings. The western corridor, where illicit economic activities and transport networks converge, emerged as a homicide hotspot, and a pronounced spillover effect linked neighboring municipalities' violence to adjacent coca and mining activity. The authors argue that policies focusing solely on removing criminal leaders overlook the underlying place-based drivers of violence, suggesting that interventions like crop substitution, legal mining jobs and stronger security along trafficking routes may be more effective.