How Russia’s shift from armies to influence reshapes Georgia’s future

The piece contends that Russia has learned to achieve its aims by shaping other states’ decisions rather than by deploying soldiers, a lesson highlighted by the expensive war in Ukraine. The 2008 conflict in Georgia, which left Russian-held regions but failed to topple the Georgian government, is presented as the last instance of traditional invasion. Since then, Moscow has employed tactics such as economic coercion, propaganda campaigns and the adoption of “foreign agents” laws to weaken institutions.

The author describes how Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party passed a law mirroring Kremlin practices, prompting EU sanctions and a delay in EU accession talks. He also details the stalled Anaklia deep-water port project, which shifted from a Western consortium to a Chinese-Singaporean partnership before being abandoned, leaving the strategic asset in limbo. The analysis warns that democratic nations often miss these gradual erosions, which can redirect a country’s strategic orientation long before any military response is considered. Finally, the author urges the United States to tie aid to the health of courts and elections, not just to military metrics.