Labour sees modest post-Burnham lift but remains behind Reform in polls

Opinion polling following Andy Burnham’s appointment as prime minister indicates a modest “Burnham bounce,” lifting Labour into the mid-20s, the highest figure since early 2025, yet Reform stays within striking distance. Such post-leadership bumps are common, with past transitions yielding gains of six to seven points, though Burnham’s increase is smaller than any recent mid-term prime minister’s average. Labour’s win in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, securing 47% of first-preference votes, outperformed regional expectations despite being lower than the previous mayoral result.

Reform’s recent slide to 24% follows scrutiny over the legality of some of its funding and Nigel Farage’s decision to resign and contest a by-election, which has hurt its standing. The Greens and Liberal Democrats have each lost about two points, contributing to Labour’s gain, while the Conservatives have edged up to 20% for the first time since last spring. Burnham’s challenge now is to convert this temporary lift into lasting support, especially among working-class voters who have shifted toward Reform.