New Book Warns China May Capture Taiwan Without Full-Scale War

Eyck Freymann, a Hoover fellow at Stanford University, contends in his new book that China is unlikely to launch a costly amphibious invasion of Taiwan, given the PLA's lack of recent war experience and the geographic challenges. Instead, he outlines a strategy of coercive economic and legal measures—using its semiconductor industry, trade leverage, and lawfare—to bring the island under control without firing a shot. Freymann links this approach to Xi Jinping's goal of "national rejuvenation" and frames Taiwan as a test of U.S. resolve.

He draws a historical parallel to Lincoln's handling of Fort Sumter, suggesting that a non-military seizure could still trigger a major strategic shift. The analysis concludes that Washington and its partners must prepare for every scenario and make clear that any form of coercion will be met with severe consequences. The book serves as a call for comprehensive deterrence to prevent a crisis from escalating into open conflict.