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New Study Shows Trump’s Deportation Drive Undermines Jobs for Native Workers

Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that President Donald Trump’s aggressive deportation policy has not boosted employment for U.S.-born men and may have slightly reduced it.

A recent report by the National Bureau of Economic Research reveals that President Donald Trump’s intensified deportation campaign has failed to deliver the employment benefits he pledged, showing a slight drop in job participation among native-born men. The authors attribute the outcome to reduced economic activity and the loss of complementary undocumented labor, which historically supports U.S.-born workers in industries such as construction.

The Immigrant Research Initiative adds that when labor-intensive roles filled by undocumented workers disappear, related trades hire fewer native workers, and consumer spending declines as fear of ICE spreads. In the same period, immigration officers have been involved in shootings that have resulted in two fatalities, raising further concerns. Despite Trump’s recent rally claims of a “Golden Age,” overall job creation has slowed, with only 181,000 new positions added in 2025 versus 1.46 million the year before, and unemployment edging up to 4.2 percent in June. The White House has not offered comment on the findings.

Why it matters

The findings challenge a core promise of Trump’s immigration policy, suggesting it may harm the domestic labor market.

In this story

Trump deportation policyjob growthImmigrant Research InitiativeICE activityU.S.-born workerseconomic impactunemployment rate