OPEC+ set to lift output in September as new quota talks loom

Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ members are expected to raise their oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day at a September meeting, while future quota negotiations appear increasingly difficult.

At an online gathering on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ participants are projected to raise their oil output quotas for September by about 188,000 barrels per day, according to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon. This adjustment is expected to be the last in the current sequence of incremental increases that have followed a series of three major production cuts implemented between late 2022 and 2023. Analysts note that many members cannot actually meet their official targets because of declining production capacity, reducing the significance of higher quotas.

Geopolitical factors, including Iran's near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, have further complicated export growth. While Iraq has expressed a desire to boost output substantially, the United Arab Emirates withdrew from OPEC+ in May, highlighting possible fractures within the group as it prepares for new quota discussions next year.