Polls Show Texas Senate Candidate James Talarico Has Reached Peak Democratic Support

Polling data from Wedgewood Polls and Texas Southern University show James Talarico has hit the ceiling of Democratic support in Texas, posting a modest two-point edge over Ken Paxton. The surveys suggest Talarico’s advantage derives almost entirely from voters who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, with little to no appeal among former Trump supporters. Paxton, meanwhile, has consolidated roughly 85 percent of the Republican base, echoing the alignment seen in the 2022 contests where Greg Abbott and Paxton won by similar margins.

The governor’s race mirrors this dynamic, with incumbent Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by six points in both polls. Overall, the data point to a tightly contested Senate race that will likely hinge on the ability of either candidate to attract voters beyond their core constituencies.