Prediction market Kalshi proposes contracts on FDA approvals and trial results

Kalshi intends to introduce a prediction market that lets traders wager on upcoming FDA approvals and the success of clinical trials. CEO Tarek Mansour says the goal is to make data about drug development more publicly accessible, claiming the industry is highly information-constrained. The initiative has drawn criticism from observers who view betting on medical outcomes as ethically problematic, especially for patients relying on experimental therapies.

While the current pilot does not cover pediatric drugs, the company’s broader vision suggests any “difference of opinion” could become tradable. The debate highlights tensions between market transparency and the moral implications of monetizing health prospects.