Prediction markets now allow bets on FDA approval of cancer drugs

Prediction-market operators have introduced contracts that let participants bet on the Food and Drug Administration’s decision to approve experimental cancer drugs, claiming the trades give investors clear signals about drug value. Patients such as Walter Ingaharro Jr., battling metastatic pancreatic cancer, and Kristin Ruben, fighting lung cancer, have condemned the bets as a cruel game that pits survival against speculation.

The markets are regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which exempts them from state gambling prohibitions, a loophole that states like Utah and Nevada are challenging. To prevent insider trading, the platforms bar drug developers, trial staff, FDA officials, and competing firms, yet they still attract bettors without medical expertise. A spokesperson for Kalshi suggested that retired doctors or medical students would be ideal participants, but the reality is a diverse, often uninformed crowd.

Studies from Tulip Hill Healthcare indicate that the psychological dynamics of these markets mirror those of conventional gambling, raising concerns about addiction. The piece urges Congress to align federal oversight with state gambling laws, or to ban such markets outright for public health reasons.