Russia faces an uncertain power transition as Putin's aging inner circle looms

Vladimir Putin, now 73, has constructed a personalist system that relies on a tight-knit group of senior officials, most of whom are also in their 70s, to maintain control. He has deliberately avoided establishing a clear heir or a vice-presidential role, leaving the constitution to dictate that the prime minister becomes acting president after a vacancy, though current prime minister Mikhail Mishustin lacks an independent power base.

As the gerontocratic elite ages, younger cadres have been blocked from advancement, prompting speculation that figures such as Aleksei Dyumin, Vyacheslav Volodin, or Sergei Kiriyenko could emerge as successors. The article notes that Russia’s succession will be decided by a narrow selectorate of office-holders—parliament speakers, the head of the Presidential Administration, security chiefs, and others—rather than by formal rules alone.

Historical parallels are drawn to the post-Stalin power scramble and to more orderly handovers in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The analysis warns that the lack of generational turnover raises the risk of internal conflict and an unstable transition when Putin eventually leaves office.