Strong El Nino threatens heightened weather losses across Asia in 2026
Munich Re warned that a strengthening El Nino will raise the risk of extreme weather and insurance losses throughout the Asia-Pacific region later this year.
In its mid-year natural catastrophe update, Munich Re highlighted that the ongoing El Nino is becoming a "super" event, likely to push global heat higher and spark a wave of extreme weather across Asia-Pacific. Achim Kassow, responsible for the region, warned of increased typhoon activity in Japan and Korea and heightened heat, drought and wildfire threats in Southeast Asia, India and Australia. The firm’s chief climate scientist, Tobias Grimm, explained that El Nino reshapes weather patterns, raising flood risk in parts of China while deepening drought elsewhere.
Malaysia’s meteorological agency expects temperatures near 40 °C and reduced rainfall as the phenomenon peaks between November 2026 and January 2027. Munich Re noted that only a fraction of the roughly US$112 billion in global natural-disaster losses this year was insured, with Asia-Pacific insured losses far below the ten-year average, underscoring the growing exposure for insurers.
Why it matters
The forecasted El Nino could drive costly weather disasters in Asia, affecting economies, insurers and vulnerable communities.
How the sides frame it
MODERATE AGREEMENTAll camps acknowledge a strong El Niño driving extreme weather, but left-leaning coverage stresses global economic and food-security crises and calls for urgent policy action, centrist coverage highlights record heat and fire risks for Australia, while right-leaning coverage focuses on insurance-based loss projections and regional threats across Asia-Pacific.
LEFT
Frames El Niño as a climate-driven crisis threatening economies, food security and vulnerable populations, urging swift policy and funding responses.
CENTER
Frames the event as a record-breaking heatwave that could make Australia’s spring the hottest on record and raise drought and fire risks.
RIGHT
Frames El Niño as a natural catastrophe whose “super” intensity will drive regional weather losses in Asia-Pacific, emphasizing insurance-industry loss estimates and specific regional impacts.
The left emphasises
- strong El Niño could cause up to $686 billion in direct losses and $3.1 trillion over five years
- emerging markets, especially in Africa, face sharp crop-yield declines
- calls for immediate funding and policy action to mitigate impacts
The right emphasises
- Munich Re labels the event a “super” El Niño and projects heightened typhoon activity in Japan and Korea
- expects near-40 °C temperatures and reduced rainfall in Malaysia
- cites a fraction of the roughly US$112 billion global loss figure from the insurer’s analysis
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