Strong El Nino threatens heightened weather losses across Asia in 2026
Munich Re warned that a strengthening El Nino will raise the risk of extreme weather and insurance losses throughout the Asia-Pacific region later this year.
In its mid-year natural catastrophe update, Munich Re highlighted that the ongoing El Nino is becoming a "super" event, likely to push global heat higher and spark a wave of extreme weather across Asia-Pacific. Achim Kassow, responsible for the region, warned of increased typhoon activity in Japan and Korea and heightened heat, drought and wildfire threats in Southeast Asia, India and Australia. The firm’s chief climate scientist, Tobias Grimm, explained that El Nino reshapes weather patterns, raising flood risk in parts of China while deepening drought elsewhere.
Malaysia’s meteorological agency expects temperatures near 40 °C and reduced rainfall as the phenomenon peaks between November 2026 and January 2027. Munich Re noted that only a fraction of the roughly US$112 billion in global natural-disaster losses this year was insured, with Asia-Pacific insured losses far below the ten-year average, underscoring the growing exposure for insurers.
Why it matters
The forecasted El Nino could drive costly weather disasters in Asia, affecting economies, insurers and vulnerable communities.
How the sides frame it
MODERATE AGREEMENTCenter coverage stresses record-breaking heat and fire risks for Australia, while right-leaning coverage highlights a broader Asia-Pacific threat profile based on an insurance-industry report, including typhoons, floods and massive financial exposure.
CENTER
Centrist coverage frames the El Niño as an unprecedented heatwave driver that could set Australian temperature records and raise drought and fire danger.
RIGHT
Right-leaning coverage frames the El Niño as a "super" event that will trigger widespread extreme weather across Asia-Pacific and generate huge insurance losses.
The right emphasises
- Munich Re calls it a "super" event
- increased typhoon activity in Japan and Korea
- temperatures near 40 °C in Malaysia and potential US$112 billion global losses
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