Strong El Niño threatens Peru’s blueberry harvest, could push U.S. prices higher
A powerful El Niño is expected to strike Peru during its main blueberry season, potentially cutting output and raising prices for American consumers.
The looming El Niño, projected to be the strongest in over seven decades, aligns with Peru’s critical blueberry harvesting period and the onset of heavy rains along its northern coast, where most berries are grown. As the top global supplier of fresh blueberries, Peru’s reduced output could tighten the market and lift U.S. retail prices, according to industry analysts. President Keiko Fujimori’s new administration has pledged extraordinary financial support and flood-control projects for affected growers.
The phenomenon also threatens other Peruvian exports such as grapes, mangoes, asparagus and avocados, and has already disrupted the anchovy fishery, driving fishmeal prices up. Companies like Camposol expect a 15% cut to their 2026 export volume, while retailers may absorb some cost increases to keep shelves stocked. Central bank forecasts suggest the El Niño could shave up to 0.8 percentage points from Peru’s 2026 growth and 0.9 points in 2027.
Why it matters
Reduced Peruvian blueberry supply could raise U.S. grocery prices and affect broader agricultural trade.
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