Study predicts recycled materials could dominate China's EV component supply by 2050

Research from Nanjing University suggests that recycled metals and rare earths may meet most of China's electric-vehicle manufacturing needs through 2050.

Researchers at Nanjing University, headed by Xin Xiong, built a model to compare the amount of reclaimed metals and rare-earth elements with the projected demand for electric-vehicle parts in China from 2010 to 2050. The model covered battery chemistries for hybrid, battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, as well as metals used in electric motors, and evaluated four possible paths of technological change, including rapid adoption of solid-state and sodium-based batteries.

Chinese policy goals—raising battery-element recycling rates from roughly 40% to at least 98% and boosting EV sales to 60% of new vehicles by 2030—were factored into the calculations. Findings indicate that, especially as battery swapping and frequent replacements become common, recycled material could satisfy most of the nation's EV component needs by the end of the decade. The study notes that while hybrid sales will wane, battery-electric vehicle numbers continue to rise, ensuring a steady stream of end-of-life batteries for recycling. This circularity potential could reshape supply chains and reduce reliance on virgin resource extraction.