Texas Senate contest remains tight as polls show Talarico edging Paxton

In the current Texas U.S. Senate race, aggregated polling data reveal a narrow lead for Democratic candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton, a gap wider than Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 showing against Ted Cruz. One outlet compiles these polls, applying a weighting system that favors newer surveys, larger sample sizes, and non-partisan sponsors. Only polls conducted after Paxton’s May runoff and that offered both candidates as options are counted; earlier polls are listed separately.

The methodology notes differences in sample types—adults, registered voters, and likely voters—and distinguishes probability from non-probability sampling. While the average offers a snapshot of current sentiment, it is not a prediction, and early-stage averages can shift dramatically with each new poll. The report also outlines how to evaluate poll quality, emphasizing transparency and sponsor bias.