Top seismologist warns California's 'Big One' could strike at any moment

Lucy Jones, a Caltech seismologist who modeled a magnitude-7.8 rupture of the San Andreas Fault, told one outlet 7 that the feared “Big One” could arrive tomorrow, next minute, or be a century away, emphasizing the unpredictability of timing. Her computer simulations depict a scenario of nearly two minutes of relentless shaking, leading to catastrophic traffic jams and crippling of essential services such as water supply. Meanwhile, researchers at the University of Bern, led by Liliane Burkhard, reported that Southern California’s fault system is under the highest stress recorded in the last 1,000 years.

Their work highlights the Cajon Pass, where the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults intersect, as a critical “earthquake gate” that may determine whether a quake remains confined or spreads across both faults. Marine geologist Chris Goldfinger warned that a joint rupture would trigger a disaster spanning multiple states and even reaching Canada, affecting cities from San Francisco to Vancouver. The combined findings suggest a higher-than-expected risk of a massive, multi-fault earthquake in the near future.