Treasury sticks to existing debt-sale guidance despite Wall Street calls for change

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s debt-management office has once more upheld the long-standing forward guidance that no increase in note or bond issuance is expected for at least the next several quarters, a policy dating back to the Biden era. Market participants, including Blake Gwinn of RBC Capital Markets and JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry, contend that the guidance curtails the Treasury’s ability to respond to shifting demand and may eventually force higher yields.

Recent 30-year Treasury yields have climbed to their highest point since 2007, prompting the Treasury to lean on one-year bills, which carry lower rates but expose the government to front-end rate shocks. Forecasts show the federal deficit hovering around $2 trillion annually, and a Bank of America estimate suggests that bills could comprise nearly a quarter of total debt by 2027. Dealers anticipate that any future increase in coupon sales will likely focus on short- and medium-term maturities rather than long-dated bonds, while a funding gap projected to start in fiscal 2027 could total $3.7 trillion through 2030.