Turkey Balances Coercion and Diplomacy in Its Quest for Regional Influence

Erdogan’s recent remarks linked Turkey’s security to developments in Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut, signalling a broader regional focus beyond its own borders. At the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey presented itself as a mediator, yet its actions reveal a dual strategy: coercive moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, including new legislation on disputed islands and intensified naval exercises that have pushed Greece and Cyprus toward deeper ties with France, the United States and Israel.

At the same time, Ankara adopts a more nuanced stance toward Israel, mixing public condemnation, legal pressure and trade restrictions with practical cooperation such as de-confliction talks and continued oil shipments through Turkish ports. This blend of hard and soft power aims to make Turkey an indispensable actor, a concept foreign minister Hakan Fidan calls “regional ownership.” However, contradictions arise, as seen in Turkey’s reluctance to support a Syrian incursion into Lebanon that could weaken a mutual adversary of Israel. Overall, Turkey’s policy is a patchwork of pressure and accommodation, testing how far it can extend influence before internal and external tensions limit its ambitions.