UN warns next five years will repeatedly breach 1.5°C limit and set new heat records
New UN and WMO forecasts indicate a high likelihood that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C safety threshold multiple times and break the record for the hottest year within the next five years.
According to the latest UN climate agency and UK Met Office analysis, there is a 75% likelihood that the global mean temperature will rise above the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris accord during 2026-2030, with a 91% chance that this threshold will be crossed in at least one of the next five years. An 86% probability suggests a new record for the hottest year will be set, potentially eclipsing the 2024 benchmark. The World Meteorological Organization adds that the Arctic could warm nearly 3°F by 2030, while the Amazon basin may experience unusually dry conditions that raise wildfire danger.
Scientists warn that each tenth of a degree intensifies heatwaves, floods, droughts and other extreme events, straining ecosystems and human systems. UN climate chief Simon Stiell said current mitigation efforts are insufficient, noting the growing human and economic toll of continued fossil-fuel use.
Why it matters
The projections signal accelerating climate risks that could strain food, water and health systems worldwide.
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