US emissions trajectory lags far behind Biden-era climate targets, report shows
A new Rhodium Group analysis indicates the United States will cut greenhouse gases by only 27-41% below 2005 levels by 2040, well short of the reductions pledged during the Biden administration.
Research from the Rhodium Group projects that the United States will achieve a 27-41% reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions relative to 2005 levels by 2040, falling markedly short of the 61-66% cut the Biden administration targeted for 2035. Emissions are expected to fall in every scenario examined, even as AI-driven data-center expansion fuels a rise in electricity demand. Changes to climate policy during Donald Trump's second term are set to keep natural gas and renewable sources vying for market share into the 2030s, which could restrict the power sector's emissions decline to roughly 24% by 2040.
Columbia University’s analysis of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act finds it retains about 74% of the clean-energy capacity planned under the Inflation Reduction Act, yet increased oil and gas production may push sector emissions up by 15% by 2040. Together, the findings suggest the nation is off-track to meet its earlier climate goals.
Why it matters
The gap between actual and pledged emissions cuts signals weaker climate action, affecting global warming mitigation efforts.
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