Victoria's November 28 election could reshape federal party fortunes and coalition dynamics

Victoria's election on November 28 has evolved into a high-stakes showdown that may signal broader federal trends, after Ben Carroll replaced Daniel Andrews as premier and One Nation intensified its campaign under Pauline Hanson and Victorian leader Warren Pickering. The Liberal-National Coalition hopes a victory for opposition leader Jess Wilson will revive its sagging national standing, whereas a solid One Nation showing could exacerbate the coalition's internal crisis.

Labor faces a dual challenge: a massive buffer in the lower house but a tarnished brand, amplified by an IBAC report that detailed serious and concerning conduct by senior officials during CFA negotiations, though no criminal corruption was proven. Carroll has tried to distance himself from his predecessors, pledging a royal commission into construction sector misconduct and tougher IBAC powers before the election. Meanwhile, internal Liberal turmoil eased after the disendorsement of Moira Deeming, and the party is attempting to present a united front despite thin cohesion. Polls show the Coalition leading on a two-party preferred basis, but voter fatigue from past COVID lockdowns remains a significant obstacle for Labor.