1960 Population Doomsday Forecast for 2026 Falters as Birth Rates Plummet

In 1960, the journal Science published a paper titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” in which Heinz von Foerster and his students Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot argued that human numbers could grow faster than exponentially, eventually approaching infinity on 13 Nov 2026. Their equation, based on 24 historical population estimates, initially outperformed most demographers and was repeatedly cited in academic texts and even legal arguments.

However, by the early 1990s the global birth rate began to decline sharply, causing actual population growth to lag far behind the model’s projections. Contemporary data show the birth rate is now slightly under half of its 1960 value, making the doomsday scenario improbable. The episode illustrates how scientific forecasts can be upended by shifts in human behavior and highlights the power of dramatic framing in drawing attention to demographic issues. The author suggests the episode offers a lesson in how scientists present unsettling findings to the public.