AfD gains modest support while coalition options lose majority prospects

According to the most recent Insa poll, the AfD has risen by one point, overtaking the Union, which lags considerably behind. The SPD and the Greens each hold comparable shares of the vote, and the FDP is projected to clear the five-percent hurdle and secure representation in the Bundestag. The Left Party remains the fifth-largest force.

Translating these percentages into seats suggests the AfD would obtain roughly 206 seats, the Union about 123, the SPD and Greens around 96 each, the Left about 75, and the FDP roughly 34. With a total of 630 seats, 316 are required for a majority; even a Kenya coalition of Union, SPD and Greens would fall one seat short, meaning a broader four-party alliance would be needed to govern without the AfD.