AfD leads poll in Germany's most populous state, overtaking CDU
A new Forsa poll shows the AfD ahead of the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's largest state by population.
The Forsa institute released a poll indicating that the AfD has moved into first place in North Rhine-Westphalia, overtaking the CDU for the first time in a Bundestag-related survey. The Greens, SPD and The Left occupy the subsequent positions. North Rhine-Westphalia, with about 18 million inhabitants, is the most populous of Germany's sixteen states, representing roughly one-fifth of the national population.
Earlier in the year, the AfD secured victories in state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt, while the Left won in Berlin. These results suggest a shifting political landscape in several German regions.
Why it matters
The shift signals growing support for the AfD in Germany's most influential state, potentially reshaping national politics.
How this story developed
- Aug 23 Merz warns AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt could scare off foreign investors
- Sep 20 Polls now show Die Linke slightly ahead of the CDU in Berlin and the AfD closing on the SPD in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern.
- Sep 20 Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted his CDU suffered a crushing defeat in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD reached 37% while the CDU fell to 5.5%.
- Sep 20 AfD emerged as the largest party in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s state election, but Manuela Schwesig of the SPD will receive the mandate to form a government.
- Sep 20 AfD emerged as the front‑runner in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and Die Linke topped the Berlin vote.
- Sep 21 The CDU failed to clear the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, losing all its seats in the state parliament.
- Sep 21 Elif Eralp, the daughter of Turkish left-wing refugees, was named Die Linke's lead candidate for the Berlin mayoral race, drawing parallels to New York mayor Bill de Blasio’s predecessor.
- Sep 21 Speaking on Tagesschau Extra, Krings said a division of the two top positions has not been ruled out and should be openly discussed. He recalled past CDU experiences where combining the roles proved problematic and stressed that the country's interests must come before personal ambitions. Krings added that the party must focus on overdue reforms rather than debating leadership changes, especially after recent electoral defeats in several states.
- Sep 21 Hamburg party chairman Dennis Thering called for Chancellor Merz to seek a confidence vote in the Bundestag.
- Sep 21 CDU failed to win any seats in the Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern parliament.
- Sep 21 The Greens announced they will seek a red‑green‑red coalition with the Left and SPD.
- Sep 21 AfD received about 44% of the vote in Saxony‑Anhalt, falling short of a majority by three seats.
- Sep 22 The CDU top council met on Monday to voice concerns about the party’s leadership.
- Sep 23 SPD and Greens require Die Linke to demonstrate anti‑antisemitism safeguards before coalition talks can proceed.
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