AfD Leads Saxony-Anhalt Election Polls, Threatening CDU Dominance in September Vote

Saxony-Anhalt, a sparsely populated German state known for its chemical industry and historic ties to Martin Luther, is set to hold a state election in September 2026. The Alternative for Germany, whose lead candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, is polling above 40%, far ahead of the Christian Democratic Union, which now registers between 23% and 26% after fifteen years in power under former premier Reiner Haseloff and his successor Sven Schulze.

The state office for the protection of the constitution continues to label the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist group, but this designation has not curbed its support. Smaller parties such as the Left, SPD, Greens and FDP are lagging, and it remains unclear whether they will clear the parliamentary threshold. The election occurs amid structural challenges, including the phase-out of lignite coal, an aging population with an average age of 48.3 years, and a gender imbalance among young adults, all of which have fueled voter dissatisfaction that benefits the AfD. Political scientists warn that an AfD victory could test Germany’s liberal democratic order, even as the state’s historical experience with extremist parties dates back to the 1990s.