AfD poised for another surprise win in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
The far-right AfD may repeat its recent breakthrough in the upcoming Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, threatening Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU.
On Sunday, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will hold one of two remaining state elections in Germany’s busy 2026 electoral calendar, a contest that could see the AfD repeat its dramatic rise in Saxony-Anhalt. Led locally by Leif-Erik Holm, the party aims to overtake both the CDU and the SPD, which currently leads under Manuela Schleswig. Schleswig, who has distanced herself from the national SPD coalition, positions herself as the main obstacle to the AfD’s growth.
The CDU, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is in an unprecedentedly precarious position, with recent polls indicating it is close to the minimum vote share required to stay in the state parliament. A loss would represent a severe blow to Merz’s leadership. Meanwhile, Berlin also holds elections where Die Linke is expected to emerge as the largest party, potentially forming a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
Why it matters
The outcome could reshape Germany’s political landscape and test Chancellor Merz’s standing.
How this story developed
- Sep 7 The AfD was reported to be three seats short of an outright majority, prompting coalition negotiations.
- Sep 7 AfD received 43.8% of the vote and the CDU dropped to about 17%.
- Sep 8 Günter Krings, a member of the German Bundestag, described the recent Saxony-Anhalt vote as far worse than expected, with the AfD securing 43.8% of the ballots. He argued the CDU should not entertain discussions about replacing Chancellor Friedrich Merz so soon after the far-right's victory. Krings urged the party to focus on rebuilding its credibility and blamed EU decisions for part of voter anger. The CDU’s share fell to 17.2%, roughly half of its previous support.
- Sep 9 Former US president Donald Trump praised the Alternative for Germany (AfD) after its impressive result in Saxony-Anhalt, blaming the country's immigration policies.
- Sep 9 Trump posted a congratulatory message to the AfD on Truth Social after the Saxony‑Anhalt results.
- Sep 9 Merz and AfD leader Alice Weidel clashed in a Bundestag budget debate following the Saxony‑Anhalt result.
- Sep 10 Claudia Obert resigned from the CDU and Tino Schomann publicly demanded Merz’s resignation.
- Sep 11 Only the BSW agreed to talks as all other parties declined, and Chancellor Merz rebuked Donald Trump’s congratulatory post.
- Sep 12 Markus Söder publicly rejected calls to replace Chancellor Merz.
- Sep 13 Sloterdijk’s interview at the Hay Festival added new commentary on the AfD’s trajectory.
- Sep 15 A YouGov poll finds the AfD as the strongest party across Germany, while the CDU/CSU slips to an unprecedented low, with the Greens and SPD modestly improving.
- Sep 18 Eight state premiers issued a joint communiqué reaffirming support for Chancellor Merz.
- Sep 18 A new poll shows the AfD closing to within two points of the SPD in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern.
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