AfD pulls ahead in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania poll ahead of state vote
A new ZDF poll shows the far-right AfD at 37%, three points ahead of the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of next week’s state election.
A ZDF-sponsored poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicates that the far-right Alternative for Germany leads the upcoming Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election with 37% of the vote, three points ahead of the governing Social Democratic Party’s 34%. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union registers only about 7%, a level that would be its worst in any state contest since the Federal Republic’s inception.
Smaller parties such as the Left Party (10%), the Greens (5%) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (4%) hover around the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary entry. AfD’s lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm tops the party’s list, but incumbent premier Manuela Schwesig enjoys a personal preference rating of 61% versus Holm’s 28%. The poll arrives after the AfD’s win in Saxony-Anhalt and a heavy loss for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, prompting former Chancellor Angela Merkel to warn that democracy must be actively defended.
Why it matters
The poll suggests a possible shift toward the far-right in a key eastern German state, influencing coalition dynamics and national politics.
How this story developed
- Aug 23 Merz warns AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt could scare off foreign investors
- Sep 7 Final seat projections released showing AfD with 39 seats and CDU with 16 seats.
- Sep 7 The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the leading party in Saxony-Anhalt, securing 39 seats, while the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) entered parliament and could influence the choice of state premier.
- Sep 7 Final results confirm the Landtag has 83 members, the CDU holds 15 seats and the BSW secured five seats while signalling willingness to cooperate on selected issues.
- Sep 7 The AfD was reported to be three seats short of an outright majority, prompting coalition negotiations.
- Sep 7 Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the AfD’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt marks a turning point for Germany, warning of broader repercussions.
- Sep 7 AfD received 43.8% of the vote and the CDU dropped to about 17%.
- Sep 7 AfD announced it will begin talks with potential partners after falling short of a majority.
- Sep 8 Günter Krings, a member of the German Bundestag, described the recent Saxony-Anhalt vote as far worse than expected, with the AfD securing 43.8% of the ballots. He argued the CDU should not entertain discussions about replacing Chancellor Friedrich Merz so soon after the far-right's victory. Krings urged the party to focus on rebuilding its credibility and blamed EU decisions for part of voter anger. The CDU’s share fell to 17.2%, roughly half of its previous support.
- Sep 8 CDU leaders proposed a working group to study a possible ban of the AfD.
- Sep 9 Former US president Donald Trump praised the Alternative for Germany (AfD) after its impressive result in Saxony-Anhalt, blaming the country's immigration policies.
- Sep 9 Trump posted a congratulatory message to the AfD on Truth Social after the Saxony‑Anhalt results.
- Sep 9 Merz and AfD leader Alice Weidel clashed in a Bundestag budget debate following the Saxony‑Anhalt result.
- Sep 10 Claudia Obert resigned from the CDU and Tino Schomann publicly demanded Merz’s resignation.
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