AfD pulls ahead of Union in latest INSA Sunday poll, coalition prospects dim

A recent INSA Sunday trend indicates that the AfD has become the leading force, surpassing the Union for the first time in this series. The governing parties, the Union and SPD, together now command a share far short of a parliamentary majority, marking a sharp decline from their combined result in the February 2025 federal election. The Greens hold steady and stay ahead of the SPD, while the Linkspartei gains a small increase and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance also edges up.

The FDP and BSW each remain stuck below the five-percent threshold needed for Bundestag representation, meaning they would miss out on seats. These shifts suggest that a continuation of one outlet black-red coalition would lack sufficient seats, while a three-party alliance with the Greens could potentially reach a workable majority.