AI could lift India's annual GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points, says Bloomberg chief economist

Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, told Krity Ambey at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum 2026 that AI-driven productivity could raise India’s annual GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points. He emphasized that AI is expected to complement workers, especially in professional services, rather than displace them, which would keep employment stable while enhancing output. India’s structural advantages—its massive domestic market, youthful labour pool, and government infrastructure spending—provide a solid base, but short-term challenges such as rising oil prices from the Iran war, capital flowing to U.S. AI data-centre projects, and El Niño-induced agricultural risks could dampen momentum.

Orlik projects that the gains will unfold over three to five years as Indian IT firms integrate AI into enterprise systems. He also highlighted that a faster resolution of geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices would further improve the outlook, while a collapse of the U.S. AI investment bubble might redirect capital toward India.