AI could push 11 million U.S. workers into new occupations by 2035

A new McKinsey analysis forecasts that AI will compel about 11 million U.S. workers—around 7% of the labor force—to move into different jobs by 2035, raising the yearly occupational shift from roughly 215,000 to three times that level. The impact will be concentrated among office and administrative staff, retail and sales personnel, and transportation and logistics workers, many of whom earn low wages. The study finds that six out of seven displaced employees will need extensive retraining and will likely see reduced earnings.

It also notes uncertainty in the timeline of AI adoption and demographic trends such as an aging population, widening the possible range of affected workers from six to sixteen million. To mitigate the disruption, the authors recommend that federal, state and local authorities improve labor-market data transparency and fund targeted retraining programs. The report draws a parallel to the rapid job changes experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting a similar scale of adjustment may be required over the next ten years.