AMRO lifts South Korea's 2026 growth outlook to 3.3% amid stronger export outlook

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) issued its quarterly assessment on Monday, increasing its estimate for South Korea's 2026 economic growth to 3.3%, up from the previously forecast 3.1%. The same report raised the 2027 growth projection to 2.7%, a jump from 2.2%, and adjusted the 2026 consumer-price inflation expectation to 2.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the earlier 2.6% figure, while trimming the 2027 inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.4%.

AMRO did not elaborate on the reasons for the upward revision, but warned that a slowdown in AI-related demand could dampen exports and investment, and that rising energy, transportation and production costs following the Middle East crisis could add inflationary pressure. The agency also cited climate change as a factor that may push food prices higher, and identified broader structural issues such as regional fragmentation and an aging population. Parallel forecasts from the OECD and the Asian Development Bank have also been raised, citing robust export performance and corporate earnings amid an AI boom.