Analysis: Ukrainian counteroffensive exploits Russian commanders' deception in northern Donetsk
Analyst David Axe argues that Ukraine's Vivaldi operation in northern Donetsk succeeded partly because Russian commanders were misled about their troops' positions.
War analyst David Axe, writing for the think-tank Cepa, assesses that Ukraine's Vivaldi counteroffensive in the northern part of Donetsk succeeded due in part to Russian commanders being effectively duped. He points to the operation's prolonged secrecy, a factor he says was crucial, and references a New York Times account that the offensive has been underway for several months, though Kyiv has refrained from public fanfare for strategic reasons.
Axe explains that Russian officers typically hide battlefield setbacks, only admitting losses when undeniable public proof exists, which allowed Ukrainian planners to persuade them that the situation was under control and that no further air support was required. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian military bloggers have echoed this view, describing a pervasive culture of misinformation within the Russian army that undermines its effectiveness, especially around the Lyman front. The analysis notes that by late September Ukraine had reportedly retaken about 176 sq km of territory previously occupied by Russian forces in northern Donetsk.
How this was covered
- The two sides describe this in almost entirely different words
How the sides frame it
LOW AGREEMENTLeft-leaning coverage emphasizes the harrowing personal experiences and high fatality rates of Russian conscripts, while centrist coverage focuses on broader societal impacts such as indoctrination, fear of mobilization, and emigration, and right-leaning coverage frames the issue as Russia’s overseas recruitment of soldiers as a form of human trafficking.
LEFT
Personal testimonies portray the war as a deadly ‘meat-grinder’ that leaves only a handful of conscripts alive
CENTER
The mobilization is shown as a systemic problem causing indoctrination, panic and a new wave of emigration
The left emphasises
- "only four of original 35 survive"
- "gehaktmolen" (meat grinder) description of the war
- "deserted" and "harsh introduction to war" accounts
