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Arab states warn new war could erupt after Israel election and US Congress vote

Arab analysts say Israel's election and the upcoming US congressional vote raise the risk of renewed conflict with Iran and a broader regional war.

Arab observers anticipate that the upcoming Israeli election, followed by the US congressional elections, could trigger a new round of hostilities in the Middle East. They argue that Israel’s current government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has abandoned its traditional stabilising approach for a more aggressive doctrine, conducting strikes in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran, and even targeting Qatar. Netanyahu’s campaign included calls for a regime change in Iran, and recent reports suggest he urged President Donald Trump to launch a fresh attack on Tehran.

Experts expect that, irrespective of the election outcome, Israel will maintain this confrontational policy, and a less confrontational premier would not resolve the Palestinian issue. US officials are reportedly preparing attack plans, and Trump has hinted at possible strikes after the congressional vote. In response, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and others sent a high-level delegation to Tehran to avert a wider war, though analysts remain skeptical about its impact. The broader concern among Arab states is that a period of uncertainty in Israel could increase the likelihood of a new escalation across the region.

Why it matters

A new Middle East war could destabilize the region and disrupt global security and energy markets.

How this story developed

  1. Oct 7 Trump administration weighs pre-election strikes on Iran to boost GOP prospects
  2. Oct 18 Trump posted his endorsement of Netanyahu on Truth Social.
  3. Oct 19 Netanyahu warned Israel could face a hostile U.S. president after Trump’s term.
  4. Oct 19 Trump warned that a different Israeli leader could compel the United States to intervene against Iran.
  5. Oct 20 Vice President JD Vance announced he will not support Netanyahu in the Israeli election.
  6. Oct 21 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will see the Iranian regime and Hezbollah eliminated, linking the goal to discussions with Donald Trump.
  7. Oct 21 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared a more extensive attack on Iran for Oct. 10, but President Donald Trump opposed the plan ahead of the U.S. midterms.
  8. Oct 21 Channel 12 poll shows 64% of voters say Trump’s endorsement will not affect their vote, 17% say it reduces support for Netanyahu, and 12% say it reinforces support.
  9. Oct 23 Netanyahu announced plans for a larger strike on Iran.
  10. Oct 24 Trump hinted at a possible limited “Epic Fury” operation against Iran.
  11. Oct 24 Former President Barack Obama publicly criticized Trump’s conduct of the Iran war and tied it to cost‑of‑living concerns.
  12. Oct 26 Trump said a choice remains between a "very easy" new strike and a diplomatic deal, and no strike would occur that day.
  13. Oct 27 President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu ahead of the election.
  14. Oct 27 U.S. deployed a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf ahead of the midterm elections.

In this story

Israel electionIran conflictUS congressional voteregional war riskSaudi delegationIsraeli aggressionPalestinian issueTrump Iran attackMiddle East tensions
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