Atlanta Fed Survey Shows U.S. Companies Anticipate Fastest Sales Rise in Four Years
U.S. firms expect nominal sales to increase about 5.8% over the next year, the quickest growth in more than four years, according to the August Atlanta Fed survey.
In its August release, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported that businesses anticipate a 5.8% increase in sales revenue over the next four quarters, the strongest forecast since mid-2022 and higher than July’s 5.1% estimate. The survey’s smoothed expectation measure rose to 5.7%, marking nine straight months above the five-percent threshold. Companies also expect selling prices to climb 3.2% within a year, implying real volume growth of about 2.6% after stripping out inflation.
The distribution of expectations is wide, with the median at 4.9%, the 75th percentile at 9.5%, and the 90th percentile at 16.3%, while only the bottom ten percent foresee a drop. Realized sales growth for the prior quarter jumped to 7.2%, the highest since May 2023, and firms reported a 3.6% rise in selling prices, suggesting roughly 3.4% real growth. Employment expectations softened to a 0.9% increase over the next year, reflecting modest hiring amid a constrained labor market.
Why it matters
The survey signals strong demand and potential profit pressure, influencing business planning and monetary policy outlook.
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