Australia faces a strategic crossroads as regional power shifts leave it without a bold political direction

Sam Roggeveen’s Boyer Lecture identified four transformative forces: the fall of a historic empire, the ascent of a new one, a strong neighbour on Australia’s doorstep, and the changing nature of Western liberal democracy. He emphasized China’s rapid economic growth and military expansion, arguing it will seek regional leadership and cannot be treated as a subordinate partner. The United States, once able to guarantee security, now faces limits that make its traditional role less reliable, turning the alliance into a cost-benefit transaction.

Domestically, Roggeveen contended that Australia’s Labor, Liberal, and One Nation parties are fragmented and lack a decisive mandate, hindering bold policy action. He called for a shift toward self-reliance, deeper ties with a rising Indonesia, and a renewed immigration stance to maintain size and influence in the region.