Australian parties clash over net overseas migration targets and visa reduction plans

Net overseas migration (NOM) counts the net increase of people who have lived in Australia for at least 12 months within a 16-month period, excluding diplomats. The latest figure is roughly 300,960 for the year ending December 2025, down from a post-pandemic peak of 556,000, with Treasury forecasting a decline to 225,000 by 2027-28, though past estimates have often been exceeded. Labor, the Coalition and One Nation all say they will lower NOM, but each offers limited detail: One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce advocate a 130,000 target, citing cuts to temporary graduate and student visas; the Coalition’s Angus Taylor suggests caps tied to housing supply, with some members mentioning 180,000; Prime Minister Anthony Albanese treats the Treasury forecast as the government’s aim while focusing on preventing temporary visa overstays.

Major contributors to NOM include international students (about 156,700), skilled workers (around 86,000) and working-holiday makers (about 78,000), while schemes like PALM and returning Australians are not fully captured in the figure. Critics argue the parties are tossing numbers without clear implementation plans.