BCR forecasts Romania's real GDP to shrink by 0.7% in 2026
BCR economists predict Romania's economy will contract by about 0.7% in 2026, citing weak consumer demand and persistent inflation.
BCR released a forecast indicating that Romania's real GDP will shrink by approximately 0.7% in 2026, a downgrade from its earlier -0.3% estimate. The revision reflects disappointing first-half performance, with the economy stagnating in Q2 and a 0.4% year-on-year decline. Weak consumer spending, elevated inflation—expected to reach 6.4% by year-end—and ongoing political and fiscal uncertainties are the main drivers.
EU-supported investment is expected to provide a partial counterbalance, while the National Bank of Romania is likely to hold its monetary policy rate steady at 6.50% and government bond yields near 7.0%. The report stresses that restoring policy coherence is essential to maintain Romania’s investment-grade sovereign rating and curb the rising debt-to-GDP ratio.
